Donald Trump scored a resounding victory over rival Kamala Harris to return as the President of the United States of America. In his speech, soon after winning the three swing states — North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania - Trump laid a broad blueprint for his second term. While promising “not to rest until he has delivered the strong safe and prosperous America”, he vowed to focus on issues central to his platform including strengthening border security, the need to fix borders and revitalising the economy. “We’re going to help our country heal,” he promised, stating that he and his historic comeback was driven by Americans’ desire for change and unity.
India which was anxiously watching the results, saw the first reaction with Indian stock markets registering mighty gains during the day after bleeding two days on the trot. However, there was an air of cautious optimism since there was a lot of unfinished business and uncertainties over the president’s line of thought on key issues.
Trump’s victory in 2016 brought a seismic shift in global geopolitics, and his policies continue to shape international relations well beyond American borders. For India, Trump’s ascension to the White House signifies both opportunities and challenges that will need strategic acumen to navigate. One significant aspect of his presidency is the potential to strengthen US-India relations which has grown in leaps and bounds in recent times. India could also benefit from increased military cooperation, defence support, and joint exercises, which are crucial given the ongoing tensions in the neighbourhood.
On the economic front, India looks forward to new opportunities in trade considering that the US is India’s largest trading partner. Trump’s involvement could mean that India could look at greater investments by aligning itself with longstanding Indian interests and ensuring that it remains competitive in sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals where it holds promise. Trump’s focus has been on innovation and technology and India could leverage its position here and explore avenues for the country’s IT industry.
On the flip side, there are looming worries too. Trump’s hardline stance on immigration and work visas, notably H-1B visas, which are crucial for Indian IT professionals remains a dilemma for Indians. Such restrictive measures could limit the influx of Indian talent to the US, thereby affecting the prospects of Indian professionals, especially in the tech sector. Moreover, such policies will act as a deterrent for Indian students seeking higher education in American universities.
Secondly, Trump’s tough posturing on trade tariffs stands as the biggest stumbling block between the two countries, much against the show of camaraderie and friendly hugs exchanged by Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at every meeting. Trump’s posturing on trade tariffs has been at the heart of differences and a major point of debate on both sides. India must be cautious, as retaliatory tariffs on its products could hurt key sectors like agriculture, textiles, and electronics, where it has a competitive edge. The potential for a trade war could be damaging for both economies.
Thirdly, Trump’s presidency could leave a footprint on Indian politics as well since his policies often stressed nationalism, and this could embolden similar sentiments within India, affecting the socio-political landscape. For India which is dangerously experimenting with ‘polarisation politics’, one that is even being tried in Goa lately, this win would give a shot in the arm for a more aggressive nationalistic agenda for politicos back home.
Trump’s victory brings a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges, and while the bonhomie continues between Trump and Modi, India will have to keep its fingers crossed hoping to strengthen bilaterally and find a way through the critical issues that remain unresolved.
