The announcement by Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) national leader Atishi Marlena on Monday that the party will contest the upcoming Zilla Panchayat, Municipal, and Assembly elections in Goa independently has come as a huge surprise, especially against the backdrop of the party’s local leadership showing inclination of a tie-up. While the move may appear bold outwardly, it could be a make-or-break scenario for a party that is desperately trying to build up on its 2022 performance. The question that begs to be asked is whether this decision is a strategic manoeuvre to bolster its position or a recipe for electoral disaster given the mandate of 2022 where a split opposition with overlapping ideologies conceded a massive advantage to the BJP.
Historically, opposition unity has been crucial in politics, especially in states like Goa. We saw what unity could do in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election when the Congress nominee came up trumps against all odds. A divided opposition almost inevitably favours the ruling party.
AAP’s national leader, Atishi Marlena, has ostensibly cited trust issues with the Congress party as a primary reason for this decision. She attributes her distancing from an alliance to the historical precedents of defecting Congress MLAs bolstering the BJP ranks. However, switching parties has been a modern-day political menace visible across states and parties. In the recent Delhi elections, 8 AAP MLAs who were denied tickets spared no time in jumping over to the BJP and contesting against the very party they represented a few days back. Ethics, ideologies and morality are long buried in the sands of political power and blitz.
More than defections, parties should be worried over the larger electoral equations and implications because the landscape is fraught with risk. In a small State like Goa, putting up a united Opposition in the Assembly or local body elections is challenging and would require exhaustive negotiations, consultations and sacrifices. Eventually, it is about who parties consider their political enemy at the hustings.
While local leaders such as Amit Palekar and Venzy Viegas advocated for an alliance to counter the BJP, the national leadership seems intent on asserting autonomy, potentially overlooking the urgent need for cohesion among anti-BJP factions. The reluctance of the Congress to yield any ground, particularly in areas like Salcete, highlights the complexities of coalition politics and a notable impasse in opposition strategy.
Slamming the doors on coalition could be AAP’s ambitious attempt to leverage forthcoming local elections as a platform to demonstrate strength and consolidate its political footprint in Goa. By positioning itself as a viable alternative, particularly in local governance, AAP may seek to entice voters who are disillusioned with established parties. However, there are risks here too. If it falters in these elections, there could be repercussions and the party may enter the Assembly election arena with diminished credibility and morale.
However, politics is multi-layered and unpredictable and sometimes leaders bowl the odd ‘doosra’ to bamboozle players. Atishi's early declaration of AAP’s independent candidacy raises eyebrows and could be a calculated gamble aimed at pressuring Congress into reconsidering an alliance. Add to this a better bargaining power. The timing suggests a strategic play, reminiscent of AAP’s Lok Sabha campaign tactics, where a candidate announcement was made to force Congress into action.
The AAP's decision to go solo encapsulates a complex interplay of ambition, distrust, and electoral strategy. Voters in Goa are keenly aware of the political dynamics at play, and there are chances that they could respond against a fractured opposition. Unless lessons are learned from the past and a viable unity is cultivated, Goa may continue seeing a fragmented opposition that ultimately benefits the ruling party more than anyone else.
