While the 2027 Assembly elections are a good two years away, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its junior coalition partner, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), find themselves embroiled in escalating tensions that could reshape the electoral dynamics in the state. Recent statements from Chief Minister Pramod Sawant indicate a tough stance from the BJP, one that reflects not only current political realities but also strategic political calculations for the future.
In an address to BJP workers recently, Sawant unequivocally declared that there would be a "BJP candidate" in Priol, confronting MGP’s aspirations head-on. This assertion, coupled with his directive that "Those who do not agree with this should leave now," echoes a decisive pivot away from collaborative politics towards a more autonomy-focused approach by the BJP. Such rhetoric suggests that the party will no longer take forward the alliance with the MGP. This theory is compounded by the statement of BJP State president Damodar 'Damu' Naik who said that the Centre wants the party to contest all the 40 seats in Goa.
In the Priol and Mandrem constituencies, the BJP proved formidable opponents for the MGP in the 2022 elections. Here, the BJP’s assertiveness is grounded in strong performances by its candidates, particularly in an environment where the lack of a pre-poll alliance in 2022 led them to test their political mettle independently. The results from these constituencies suggest that the BJP may aim to capitalize on its independent strength rather than dilute its brand by accommodating allies that may not align with its electoral ambitions.
MGP’s conciliatory tone with MGP stalwart Ramkrishna ‘Sudin’ Dhavalikar insisting on unity among ‘Hindutva’ forces, appears more like a desperate attempt to maintain relevance than a genuine assurance of alliance. This contradiction highlights a potential realization within the MGP that their influence is waning. The MGP’s assurance of “all is well” following a recent Delhi visit appears to be aimed at preserving party morale, masking the reality that the relationship with the BJP is reaching a critical juncture.
Sawant’s emphasis on not compromising on party candidates symbolizes the BJP's strategy to consolidate BJP’s voter base. Also, it appears that realisation has dawned upon the leadership that concessions to the coalition partners would only mean giving up on the BJP voter base in those respective constituencies. In the 2022 elections, BJP polled 11,019 votes while MGP got 10,806. In Mandrem BJP and MGP went neck and neck polling 9,672 and 10,387 respectively. Similar is the case in Ponda with BJP polling 7,514 while MGP garnering 7,437. Moreover, there was no pre-poll alliance between the two parties in 2022.
The BJP's commitment to field candidates in every constituency serves as an implicit message of its self-reliance, a sentiment echoed by BJP leaders like Govind Gaude, who remarked that the party does not require alliances to achieve electoral success. Despite historical precedents suggesting a return to coalition politics, Sawant’s recent comments undermine any assumption that the BJP might re-engage with the MGP on favourable terms.
Ultimately, the unfolding events between the BJP and the MGP speak to a broader narrative of the redundancy of alliances. At the far end, the Opposition groups too are falling apart with each displaying ambition of going solo. As parties navigate the political waters ahead, the BJP's decisive stand could take the MGP down the road to electoral distress.
