PANAJI
India is bracing for an above-normal southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall this year with the India Meteorological Department forecasting an uptick between June and September. The seasonal downpour is expected to reach 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for India’s monsoon season, calculated from data between 1971 and 2020, stands at 87 cm.
“Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105 per cent of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm,” it said. Rainfall above 104 per cent is categorized as “above normal.”
The first southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala by early June followed by other south-western states including Goa.
The IMD stated that currently, Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However, the atmospheric Circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season.
“At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that the Neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season,” it added.
Another notable variable is snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia, which has remained below normal from January to March 2025. Historically, reduced snow cover in these regions correlates with stronger Indian monsoons, adding to the likelihood of robust rains.
The IMD stated it will release an updated and more localized forecast in the last week of May, which will offer further clarity ahead of the monsoon’s onset. Meanwhile, the temperature across Goa remained at 35-36 °C with feel like temperature crossing 40 °C.
